These key races could determine control of the U.S. Senate

This November, it’s not just the presidency that’s up for grabs. A handful of races could determine control of the U.S. Senate. Democrats currently hold a razor-thin majority but are facing tough challenges in some key states this election cycle. Lisa Desjardins takes a look at the Senate landscape.
Amna Nawaz:
This November it’s not just the presidency that’s up for grabs. A handful of races could determine control of the U.S. Senate.
Democrats currently hold a razor-thin majority, but are facing tough challenges in some key states this election cycle.
Lisa Desjardins is here now with a look at that Senate landscape.
Good to see you.
Lisa Desjardins:
Hi.
Amna Nawaz:
So let’s take a look at the big picture here. Democrats control the Senate. What do Republicans need to do to win control?
Lisa Desjardins:
Not a lot, actually. Let’s look at a mental map, first of all, just to set where we are. Right now, the U.S. Senate, 51 Democrats and independents who vote with them to organize and 49 Republicans, close margin.
If the Republicans net one where we are right now, the U.S. Senate, 51 Democrats and independents who vote with them to organize and 49 Republicans close margin. If the Republicans net one seat as their gain, the Senate would become a 50/50 place and whoever controls the White House, whoever wins that race, would control the Senate.
If the Republicans gain two seats net, it would flip from what it is now to 51 Republicans, a margin of two. Now, we have to talk not just about the plus-two, that’s what they want, that’s their goal, but how Republicans could get it.
So now let’s look at an actual map of where we are. On the ballot this election, 34 Senate seats, there they are all across the country. If you’re in one of those states, you’re probably getting more mail than everyone else.
Now, if you look at this, there are 23 of those blue states. Those are being defended by Democrats. That’s the majority here. Now, if you’re looking for Republican pickups, if you’re a Republican, one already on the board, West Virginia. Right now, that’s Senator Joe Manchin’s seat, but it is expected to flip as he retires.
It is a bright red state. So that’s plus one for Democrats right there — or for Republicans, rather. Now, where would they get another one? Let’s look at seven other competitive Senate seats that are in play. These are Democrats’ seats right now. All of these are competitive races, some more than others.
But these are places where Democrats are on defense and where Republicans think they do have pickup opportunities. Bottom line, Republicans do have a lot of paths to taking over the Senate. Democrats have to be nearly perfect to keep it.
Amna Nawaz:
So, generally speaking, when you look at those races, how are they looking?
Lisa Desjardins:
Right. There’s a spectrum.
Let’s go through four of the key races that really kind of typify what we’re talking about here. In Arizona, there you see on the left Ruben Gallego, the Democratic candidate. If you look at polls, look at the spectrum on polls, he’s up by seven to 13 points. Democrats feel good about that seat.
But going to the next one in Michigan, Elissa Slotkin, another open seat, closer, five to six points. Then you go to Sherrod Brown, an incumbent there in Ohio. That is right now a virtual tie. And then in Montana, Senator Jon Tester, right now, polls have him behind outside the margin of error for the most part. Republicans believe that that will be a sure pickup for them.
Now, what happens on the presidential ticket is going to have a big impact on all of these races, for sure.
Amna Nawaz:
So let’s take a deeper look at some of those races. We saw some debates in some of those this week. The most recent was last night in Arizona. What stands out to you there?
Lisa Desjardins:
What a fascinating political state. That’s right.
This is the open seat Kyrsten Sinema is leaving behind her. She retires. The Republican there is Trump surrogate Kari Lake, lost the race for governor in 2022. Among the reasons Democrats think they’re doing so well, there is abortion. It is on the ballot in November. And it’s something that Ruben Gallego, congressman, really brought to fore in the debate last night.
Here’s one of their exchanges. He’s trying to pin down Lake, who has had different ways of talking about her abortion stance. Used to be much more conservative.
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Senatorial Candidate: I would codify Roe. It is absolutely abhorrent that my 15-month old daughter has less rights and control of her body than her mother. And the reason we need to codify that is because people like Kari Lake are the ones that make this a dangerous situation.
Kari Lake (R), Arizona Senatorial Candidate: I understand how difficult these choices may be. And we have the choice as Arizonans to decide what our abortion law will be. It’s going to be up to us. We’re going to decide in November when we go and cast our ballot. And Ruben Gallego wants to take that choice away from us.
Lisa Desjardins:
That’s not an answer about where she stands. Now, she pushed back on immigration. He also pushed back on her election denialism.
She would not say that she actually lost the 2022 race, as we know that she has. One other race to feature here, Michigan, that’s the other open seat here. Elissa Slotkin is doing well. She’s running ahead of Kamala Harris in that race against former Congressman Mike Rogers.
But that’s one Democrats are eying because, if Kamala Harris, if she has more of a problem nationally, Elissa Slotkin could have a problem in Michigan as well.
Amna Nawaz:
What about in Montana, I know another state you’re looking at, the best potential chance for Republicans to flip a seat here?
Lisa Desjardins:
Yes, it is. It really is. In fact, if Republicans can’t flip this seat, I think Democrats will keep the Senate, for sure.
This is a very tough race for Democrats. It always has been a tough place for Democrats, at least in modern times. Jon Tester is running against former Navy SEAL and someone who’s a businessman, who’s running a very good campaign and a lot of money in this race.
Last night in the debate earlier this week, one of the big issues they brought up was immigration. Here’s how Sheehy went on the attack.
Tim Sheehy (R), Montana Senatorial Candidate: I’m a pro-immigration guy. I welcome dozens of folks here to work for our companies and brought friends in this country. But coming the right way legal is the way to do it. What we have seen happen in the last 3.5 years is a humanitarian disgrace. It’s a national security disgrace. And the Democrats chose to let it happen.
Lisa Desjardins:
Now, Tester responded by distancing himself from President Biden, but also criticizing Sheehy and Republicans for not supporting that potential border compromise earlier this year.
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT):
I will be the first to tell you that President Biden has not done a good job on the southern border. That could have been passed six or eight months ago, but the bottom line is, Tim Sheehy, before it was even released to read, said, nope, not going to support that, because his party bosses told him that’s what you need to do.
Lisa Desjardins:
Lots to say here, but a Republican Senate source I talked to today who would surely like Tester to lose says you can’t count him out because he really does pick up in the end in most of his races.
Amna Nawaz:
What about Democrats here, Lisa? Is there any chance for them to flip a Republican seat?
Lisa Desjardins:
Oh, yes, they’re eying Texas and Ted Cruz. They are actually putting money into — they have got a good candidate down there that they think perhaps could make this a close race. It is a long shot.
There’s also potential in Florida, also a long shot. And I have to say, state of Nebraska, the longest long shot there. An independent who is not a Democrat is giving Deb Fischer some nervousness and they’re having to spend money there as well. Those are long shots. They’re not expected.
But, again, the presidential race could change the equation.
Amna Nawaz:
You will be tracking it all, less than a month to go.
Lisa Desjardins, thank you so much.
Lisa Desjardins:
You’re welcome.